Indiana Proof Of Obama's Strength

News Type: Opinion — Wed May 7, 2008 12:36 AM EDT

politics, barack-obama, hillary-clinton, democrat, nominee, portfolio

Live Poll

Has Barack Obama finally put Hillary Clinton away?

Yes
64%
No
36%

Total Votes: 11

As I write this article, Indiana is giving Hillary Clinton a 2% win with a margin of a little under 40,000 votes (approximately 588K to Obama's 568K) and with 92% of precincts reporting. MSNBC is also reporting that the areas left to be counted are strongholds for Barack Obama in Indiana. There is speculation that this primary is not over yet and that Obama may still be able to salvage a victory from it as Tuesday night stretches into Wednesday morning. MSNBC's Chuck Todd estimates that the best case scenario for Clinton is a 10,000 vote win in the state.However, that pertains to the math only because it is already a foregone conclusion that Barack Obama won big in Indiana tonight by holding the margin to four points.

On Monday, April 28 this race was irretrievably altered in the eyes of the media by an appearance by Obama's former pastor Jeremiah Wright. In this appearance, Wright reaffirmed his many controversial beliefs about this country, its government and the state of its race relations. He then went a step further, inferring that Obama actually believes these things and is lying to the American people. The mainstream media, already engorged and excited from the fact that Wright had re-emerged at all, went into an orgiastic frenzy of punditry declaring that this could be the fatal weakness that Clinton had been trying to exploit for months now as her campaign descended from a coronation into a coronary. The media played the new clips of Wright confirming his staunch support of his old clips over and over again and then asked if the Wright controversy would hurt the Obama campaign, blissfully ignorant of the fact that their actions were like a doctor injecting a patient with a nasty strain of influenza and then repeatedly asking "Are you feeling okay? You look a little rough."

This was the Obama campaign's opportunity to fall apart. As the media encroached upon his candidacy, savaging it with news cycle after news cycle of Wright's hateful comments and questions of how it would affect the campaign, They hounded Obama into giving a second speech by Thursday of last week, finally cutting Wright loose for good. Clinton struck not only on the Wright issue but also accusing Obama of being an elitist that was uninterested in helping blue collar voters for declining to put a moratorium on the federal gas tax. Obama was having such a bad week that John McCain finally told reporters he wasn't interested in discussing the Wright issue.

Polls were putting Clinton ahead by 9 points in Indiana and they were saying she had narrowed North Carolina to single digits from double digits in Obama's favor. But Obama stuck it out and tonight is a testament to the strength of his campaigning spirit as well as his organizational structure to have gone through his worst week in the entire campaign season as he was approaching two critical contests in regards to winning the Democratic nomination. There was talk of a possible loss in North Carolina where Obama had been considered bulletproof and much more talk that Indiana could go to Clinton by double digits. Instead, Obama fought back, maintained his confidence and composure and won North Carolina as he was expected to before Wright reappeared and narrowed Indiana so much that he could actually win.

Indiana was the last firebreak for Hillary Clinton. This last week was the time that if Barack Obama was going to collapse, this was it. By surviving this onslaught, Obama has broken the back of the Clinton campaign.

15 Votes
Enjoy this article? Help vote it up the 'Vine.

Published to:

Scott Isaacs's Column, All of Newsvine
Groups: 2008: Barack Obama, America's Need For Change, Bar Room Debates, DemGuys, Democrats, Election News, Heated Debate, Left of Center, Newsvine Election Coverage, ObamaExpress, ObamaVine, Open Mic, Open Source Intelligence, Political Analysis, The Big 2008 Election
Regions: Indianapolis

What's this?

Who's leading the conversation?

This visualization below allows you to see the impact that each user has on the current conversation. The top row contains the group of users who have had the most impact, the 2nd row the group of users who have had the 2nd most impact (et cetera). Users with similar impact are grouped together, and the average score of the group is shown to the left of the group. The author of the article is also shown on the left, in their corresponding group. Each user's score is based on the number of comments the user has made plus the number of votes their comments have received. The scores are calculated relative one another, so while their absolute value is not particularly important, their relative difference does indicate a larger difference in impact on the conversation.

7.6

{"commentId":1773923,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Scott Isaacs

So, did he finally break the last vestiges of resistance in the party to him as the nominee?

{"commentId":1773923,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"isaacs"}

5 votes

#1 - Wed May 7, 2008 12:42 AM EDT

{"commentId":1774031,"authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

Tedd Riggs

Its late, so just double checking, Clinton did win Indiana however right ?

{"commentId":1774031,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

5 votes

#2 - Wed May 7, 2008 1:31 AM EDT

{"commentId":1774166,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Scott Isaacs

They settled on calling Clinton the "apparent" winner at 51%-49%. The spread, however, is small and I don't know if provisional ballots and any others that weren't cast and counted today remain to be counted. If I had to guess I'd say this remains a close Clinton win.

{"commentId":1774166,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"isaacs"}

5 votes

#2.1 - Wed May 7, 2008 3:01 AM EDT

{"commentId":1774249,"authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

Robert Blevins - AB of Seattle

Less than 17,000 votes. Not what she was hoping for, I'm sure.

It was Clinton's last chance, really. She missed on these:

1) Upset victory in North Carolina

2) Decisive win in Indiana

3) Total popular vote count, both states. She lost that by more than 300,000 votes.

Not good.

'That's no moon...it's a Space Station!'

{"commentId":1774249,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"adventurebooks"}

6 votes

#2.2 - Wed May 7, 2008 4:32 AM EDT

{"commentId":1774511,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}

arcanebliss

Scott Isaacs
They settled on calling Clinton the "apparent" winner at 51%-49%. The spread, however, is small and I don't know if provisional ballots and any others that weren't cast and counted today remain to be counted. If I had to guess I'd say this remains a close Clinton win.

Yes, and will much be said of the significant number of voters not allowed to vote in Indiana? As, they were in Obama-rich counties. [ref. other popular seed]

{"commentId":1774511,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}

4 votes

#2.3 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:09 AM EDT

{"commentId":1774527,"authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

Tedd Riggs

OK...Thanks for the update, at 10.30 pm when I posted that, my brain was saying "Turn off Newsvine NOW !" and I was not so clear on what was going on with the election. I kinda thought Clinton would have done a little better in that one.

I would say its about time for her to hang it up, but I doubt she is going to. She has six more state contests to go and my guess is she will hang in to the bitter end.

{"commentId":1774527,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

5 votes

#2.4 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:16 AM EDT

{"commentId":1775171,"authorDomain":"EPH289"}

EPH289

I'm a bit more simple when it comes to these things. Both campaigns at times have claimed victory in states they lost. That is politics. These are the facts:

Clinton won Indiana
Obama won North Carolina

{"commentId":1775171,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"EPH289"}

5 votes

#2.5 - Wed May 7, 2008 11:03 AM EDT

{"commentId":1775238,"authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

Tedd Riggs

Clinton won Indiana
Obama won North Carolina

Put that way, I can understand politics just fine, the trouble it, most people don't state it like that....

{"commentId":1775238,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

5 votes

#2.6 - Wed May 7, 2008 11:22 AM EDT

{"commentId":1775495,"authorDomain":"deatienza"}

Eric Atienza

I'm a bit more simple when it comes to these things. Both campaigns at times have claimed victory in states they lost. That is politics. These are the facts:

Clinton won Indiana
Obama won North Carolina

You also have to look at the bigger picture though. Clinton was behind going into the races. She needed a close finish in N.C. and a large victory in Indiana to close with Obama nationally and she got neither of those. Each individual race matters only in how it contributes to the larger, national, race.

{"commentId":1775495,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"deatienza"}

6 votes

#2.7 - Wed May 7, 2008 12:14 PM EDT

{"commentId":1775521,"authorDomain":"EPH289"}

EPH289

Each individual race matters only in how it contributes to the larger, national, race.

I agree with this sentiment.

What I tend to disagree with(not aimed at you Eric) is how individual races are characterized by those with agendas that clearly are not necessarily accurate but support their positions only.

I can support logically both candidates positions based upon what has happened so far. At the end of the day, I land at the position that the process is flawed.

{"commentId":1775521,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"EPH289"}

3 votes

#2.8 - Wed May 7, 2008 12:20 PM EDT

{"commentId":1775940,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Scott Isaacs

EPH289:
The game is how the expectations are set regarding what your campaign should be able to do and then you are judged on how close you came to meeting those expectations.

Hillary Clinton was expected to beat Obama by double digits in Indiana and lose North Carolina by single digits... the exact opposite happened. Those expectations were also not out of line with the kind of momentum she had accrued during her and the media's vicious offensive against Obama over Jeremiah Wright's comments to the National Press Club on April 28. Clinton had every advantage she could hope for going into these primaries and the result was she barely won the primary she was supposed to kill him in and she didn't even keep it close in the primary that she was expected to lose by single digits. The handwriting is pretty much on the wall: Obama was at his weakest point of the entire campaign in the run up to these primaries and this was the result of Obama fighting back and standing his ground... if Clinton can't beat him under these circumstances it makes everything her campaign says about her chances to win the nomination look like bullsh*t and that, in the end, is what has put an end to her candidacy.

{"commentId":1775940,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"isaacs"}

4 votes

#2.9 - Wed May 7, 2008 1:45 PM EDT

{"commentId":1776384,"authorDomain":"EPH289"}

EPH289

I hear you Scott. A slightly different perspective. I live in Indiana and have been listening to the local news for weeks leading up to the primary.

People here didn't expect the landslide that you mention. This I believe is being propulgated by the national media and their pundits. Polls had shown this to be a close and tightening race for weeks.

If you look at our state, a significant population center is served by Chicago media primarily and would seem to give a definite home field advantage to Mr. Obama. On the other hand, we only have about 9% of the population being black which is the biggest demographic group going dramatically for him.

{"commentId":1776384,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"EPH289"}

2 votes

#2.10 - Wed May 7, 2008 3:22 PM EDT

{"commentId":1777293,"authorDomain":"isaacs"}

Scott Isaacs

EPH289:

I hear you Scott. A slightly different perspective. I live in Indiana and have been listening to the local news for weeks leading up to the primary.

I have to say that it looked different from the outside looking in on the Indiana race even though I live in a county (Butler County, Ohio) that borders Indiana and I'm literally about 10 miles from the border. I think that your view of the race and mine, even though we're not terribly different geographically, is a great example of how the media helps to set expectations. I also think that the national media playing up Wright's NPC appearance like the Howard Dean scream and then naively reporting polls that showed him being hurt with white voters was a two-faced move that helped to create the expectation nationally that Clinton was going to really hammer Obama in Indiana. I'm as big of an Obama supporter as they come and I was fearing that Clinton was not only going to meet the expectations of her but exceed them. I feared Obama losing Indiana by 16 points and him winning North Carolina by low single digits or being upset there.

People here didn't expect the landslide that you mention. This I believe is being propulgated by the national media and their pundits. Polls had shown this to be a close and tightening race for weeks.

I think that news outlets tend to use polls that validate what they believe is happening like The poll showing Clinton ahead by 9 in Indiana that was cited on MSNBC and another poll showing Clinton behind by just 3 in North Carolina. I also think that flies in the face of journalistic integrity too since they know that their reporting affects the tone of the race which goes on to affect voters. The media was unfair to Clinton after Iowa and approaching New Hampshire and I think they did the same to Obama starting from Wright's appearance at the National Press Club onward through yesterday's primaries. Ironically, Obama can thank the press for trying to take their shot to destroy him. By assisting the Clinton campaign and focusing nearly all their critical coverage on him they created a situation where he was either going to fold under the pressure and be shown not to be fit to be president or he was going to triumph and after that Clinton's arguments that he was inexperienced, etc. would ring hollow because if Obama could survive last week he can survive anything thrown at him.

I had asserted early on that Clinton had the trouble that she was Paul Tsongas to Barack Obama's Bill Clinton. Obama was the non-establishment candidate that was talking about change and had oratory skills on the order of the great Democrats: FDR and JFK. I'm going to write a piece here soon I think that will highlight the reason that successful Democratic presidents have to be truly legendary: since 1932 the Democratic Party has been an amalgamate that can be bound into an unstoppable electoral force with the right element and that is a Democrat that is charismatic enough to rally all the parts of the party together.

{"commentId":1777293,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"isaacs"}

2 votes

#2.11 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:17 PM EDT

{"commentId":1777337,"authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

SteveHouse

Clinton won Indiana
Obama won North Carolina

Sorry, but it doesn't work that way. It's not winner-take-all. Forget the expectations game too; the campaigns (Hillary's in particular) excel in making you think they are going to worse than they actually do. The real results are here: Clinton won Indiana by two whole points, and I doubt if she nets more than two delegates out of it. Obama won North Carolina by 14 points, and eradicated Hillary's gains in the popular vote total from Pennsylvania. Meaning the net change from the last two weeks' primaries is so tiny that it's hardly worth mention.

{"commentId":1777337,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

#2.12 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:35 PM EDT

{"commentId":1778362,"authorDomain":"EPH289"}

EPH289

Scott

I think that news outlets tend to use polls that validate what they believe is happening like The poll showing Clinton ahead by 9 in Indiana that was cited on MSNBC and another poll showing Clinton behind by just 3 in North Carolina.

This I think is right on.

I've gotten to the point that I don't even pay attention to the polls or the pundits. They just aren't right and they frequently in my opinion are more about putting forward agendas and manipulating the electorate than they are about reporting.

{"commentId":1778362,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"EPH289"}

1 vote

#2.13 - Thu May 8, 2008 7:47 AM EDT

{"commentId":1791361,"authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

Tedd Riggs

Clinton won Indiana
Obama won North Carolina
Sorry, but it doesn't work that way

Probably not. But for a Engineering Type brain, the politics is his weakest area of knowledge and has not kept up to date as much as others, at least that makes it easier to understand. "Fuzzy Logic" ☺

{"commentId":1791361,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"TeddRi"}

3 votes

#2.14 - Mon May 12, 2008 1:03 PM EDT

{"commentId":1774252,"authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

SteveHouse

For tomorrow's readers, you might update the article where it talks about having 92% of the precincts reporting. That was before the apparent boffery up in Lake County. Just a suggestion.

{"commentId":1774252,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"stevehouse"}

3 votes

#3 - Wed May 7, 2008 4:33 AM EDT

{"commentId":1774520,"authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}

arcanebliss

Polls were putting Clinton ahead by 9 points in Indiana and they were saying she had narrowed North Carolina to single digits from double digits in Obama's favor.

Guess not!

{"commentId":1774520,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"arcanebliss"}

3 votes

#4 - Wed May 7, 2008 8:11 AM EDT

{"commentId":1791319,"authorDomain":"cpaul44"}

cecil paul

I know that the Obama Campaign has and is probably still working on this crucial strategy. THE WINNING OVER OF WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTERS IN LARGER NUMBERS. I think a successful strategy in this important area is imperative for a Democratic Victory in the General.

{"commentId":1791319,"threadId":"260814","contentId":"1473191","authorDomain":"cpaul44"}

#5 - Mon May 12, 2008 12:52 PM EDT

{"canLink":false,"threadId":"260814","isPrivate":false}

CNN Slights Obama: 4 points in the polls is a "clear lead" for Clinton, only a "slight edge" for Obama	CNN	Mon May 5	11
CBS Calls Indiana for Clinton: [Is this a "Dewey Wins!" Call?]	CBS News	Tue May 6	2
Clinton narrowly takes Indiana, CNN projects	CNN	Wed May 7	2
ABC News: Exit polls: Race key in NC, IN but Wright's impact mixed	ABC News	Wed May 7	1
Clinton: Running on empty	Guardian Unlimited	Wed May 7	11

SCOTT ISAACS

Backyard

Indiana Proof Of Obama's Strength

Live Poll

Published to:

FUN STUFF:

COMPANY STUFF:

LEGAL STUFF: